Introduction/Objective: Ecuador’s agro-export sector generates foreign exchange and links the country to international markets, but its transmission to domestic trade activity may be transitory. This study analyzed the dynamic response of trade gross value added (GVA) to changes in banana and cocoa FOB exports in Ecuador during 2015Q1-2024Q4.

Methodology: we used 40 quarterly observations from the Central Bank of Ecuador. The series were log-transformed and assessed using ADF, Phillips-Perron, and Zivot-Andrews tests. Cointegration was examined with Johansen, Engle-Granger, and ARDL-bounds tests. Because no robust evidence of a long-run equilibrium was found, we estimated short-run dynamic models in first differences and a VAR, complemented by impulse-response functions and forecast error variance decomposition.

Results: the series behaved consistently with processes integrated of order one. Trade GVA exhibited strong internal persistence. Banana and cocoa shocks explained a complementary share of its variation: banana showed a more identifiable short-run incidence, although not uniformly expansionary, whereas cocoa displayed no systematic transmission after controlling for inertia and seasonality. The responses were small, oscillatory, and rapidly dissipating.

Conclusions: agro-exports affect Ecuadorian trade through transitory, differentiated, and horizon-dependent adjustments, without establishing permanent structural co-movement. Interpretation must account for the fact that FOB values combine prices, quantities, and market composition.

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Keywords:
Trade GVA,
FOB exports,
banana,
cocoa,
differenced VAR,
Ecuador.

05_RSN_17(37)_55_Transmision

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