Inclusive economic growth and international trade in Peru 2000-2021

Crecimiento económico inclusivo y comercio internacional en el Perú 2000-2021

Harold Delfín Angulo Bustinza  y Valeria Fátima Zeballos Ponce

Suma de Negocios, 14(30), 46-59, enero-junio 2023, ISSN 2215-910X

https://doi.org/10.14349/sumneg/2023.V14.N30.A5

Received June 20, 2023
Accepted on July 22, 2023
Online on July 31, 2023

Resumen

Introducción/Objetivo: el crecimiento económico inclusivo es un concepto de vital importancia recientemente a escala mundial; sin embargo, apenas se ha estudiado en el Perú. El objetivo es conocer la relación del crecimiento económico inclusivo y el comercio internacional del Perú en el período 2000-2021.

Metodología: el crecimiento económico inclusivo se midió utilizando los pilares de crecimiento y desarrollo (PIB per cápita, productividad laboral, empleo y esperanza de vida) e inclusión (concentración del ingreso y pobreza) del índice de desarrollo inclusivo (IDI) propuesto por el Foro Económico Mundial. Para realizar las regresiones se utilizó el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO).

Resultados: los resultados evidencian que el crecimiento del comercio internacional del Perú tiene una relación positiva con dos de los siete indicadores del crecimiento económico inclusivo analizados, que son, PIB per cápita real, y empleo vulnerable. En contraparte, posee una relación negativa con la productividad laboral. No se encuentra significancia estadística para la variable pobreza. No existe cointegración entre el comercio internacional peruano y la esperanza de vida al nacer ni la distribución de los ingresos.

Conclusiones: por tanto, finalmente concluimos que el crecimiento económico inclusivo es afectado por el crecimiento del comercio internacional peruano. El estudio se enfoca en cuatro pilares de desarrollo y dos pilares de inclusión, por lo que el análisis servirá como apoyo para plantear políticas que fomenten el crecimiento económico inclusivo en el Perú.


Palabras clave:
Crecimiento inclusivo,
inclusión,
comercio internacional,
mínimos cuadrados ordinarios,
Perú.

Códigos JEL:
C2, F1, I30, O100

Abstract

Introduction/Purpose: Inclusive economic growth is a concept that has taken on importance in recent years globally; however, it has scarcely been studied in Peru. This research aims to know if there exists a positive relationship between inclusive economic growth and international trade in Peru in the period 2000-2021.

Methodology: Inclusive economic growth was measured using the pillars of growth and development (per capita GDP, labour productivity, employment, and life expectancy) and inclusion (income concentration and poverty) of the Inclusive Development Index (IDI) proposed by the World Economic Forum. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was used to perform the regressions.

Findings: The results show that the growth of International Trade in Peru has a positive relationship with two of the indicators of inclusive economic growth analysed: real GDP per capita and Vulnerable Employment. In contrast, it has a negative relationship with Labour Productivity. There is no statistical significance for the Poverty variable. Furthermore, there is no cointegration between Peruvian International Trade and Life Expectancy at Birth or Income Distribution.

Conclusions: Therefore, it is concluded that inclusive economic growth has a positive relationship with Peruvian International Trade. The study focuses on four development pillars and two inclusion pillars, so the analysis will serve to propose policies that promote inclusive economic growth in Peru.


Keywords:
Inclusive growth,
inclusion,
international trade,
ordinary least squares,
Peru.

Artículo Completo
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Universidad Continental, Arequipa, Perú
Universidad La Salle, Arequipa, Perú
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